Irish Unification Referendum Cannot Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Alert

Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.

"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Referendum

McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."